Original analysis from the DBE Source database. Every post includes its methodology, source citations, and the caveats we'd want you to know before sharing the numbers. If you'd like the underlying scripts or a custom cut for your own work, get in touch.
Federal fundingMay 26, 2026·~6 min read
Follow-up to our earlier FHWA-only test. Adding FTA and FAA per-capita apportionment produces a significant all-in correlation with DBE density (r=+0.29, p=0.04), but it collapses to r=+0.05 (p=0.75) once DC is excluded. The combined-spending channel is a DC-metro story, not a national one. FTA alone is the strongest single-program signal (driven primarily by WMATA's flow through DC).
Read the analysis →ProgramsMay 25, 2026·~7 min read
Across 216,689 state-issued certifications, the national mix is 59% DBE, 17% SBE, 10% MBE, 7.5% ACDBE, 4.3% WBE. But the state-by-state picture varies enormously. Virginia is the most diverse (only 8.7% DBE). Maryland leads in MBE share (23.2%). Wyoming, Delaware, Mississippi run essentially pure-DBE programs. Sortable stacked-bar chart included.
Read the analysis →IndustryMay 25, 2026·~6 min read
Comparing FY2024 federal contracting volume from USAspending to certified DBE firm counts by NAICS sector. Finance & Insurance shows $20.3M of federal contracting per DBE firm, Manufacturing $13.9M, Professional Services $3.9M. Construction sits at $1.4M. Critical caveat included on what USAspending does and doesn't capture.
Read the analysis →GeographyMay 25, 2026·~7 min read
126,795 certified DBE firms geocoded to 2,598 US counties. Prince George's County, Maryland leads in absolute count (4,118) — more than Los Angeles County. Nine of the top 10 counties by density are in Virginia or Maryland. Full county-level choropleth map included.
Read the analysis →GeographyMay 25, 2026·~8 min read
Pairwise analysis of multi-state cert portfolios across 79,151 firms reveals New England as the tightest real cluster (Connecticut-Vermont at 41x the chance rate). The NJ-NY "cluster" is 94% Port Authority of NY & NJ. The DMV is partly WMATA-driven. The West Coast doesn't cluster at all.
Read the analysis →IndustryMay 25, 2026·~7 min read
Comparing DBE firm distribution by NAICS sector to the broader US small-business population: Utilities (21.9x), Educational Services (9.8x), and Information / IT (6.5x) lead the over-represented sectors. Construction comes in 11th at 2.5x. Healthcare, Retail, Finance, and Food Services are all under-represented.
Read the analysis →AgenciesMay 25, 2026·~5 min read
WMATA — the Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority — certifies 83.2% of its DBE firms from outside DC. The Port Authority of NY & NJ sits at 43.3%. Multi-state authorities behave structurally differently from single-state DOTs, and that gap matters for any firm working a regional contract market.
Read the analysis →GeographyMay 25, 2026·~6 min read
Across all state DOT certifications nationally, 16.7% are held by out-of-state firms. Seven state DOTs — Connecticut, Missouri, Rhode Island, DC, Massachusetts, Tennessee, and Delaware — run more than 40% out-of-state. If you're planning multi-state expansion, these are your highest-yield applications.
Read the analysis →GeographyMay 24, 2026·~5 min read
DC, Maryland, and Virginia hold 27% of every certified DBE in the country, in 4.6% of the population. We tested whether federal highway dollars per resident could explain the rest of the map. They can't — and the reason is a quirk of FHWA funding formulas worth understanding.
Read the analysis →